Bookmakers are finding group C difficult to price. Argentina are favourites to win the group, while Saudi Arabia have been given little chance escape. Bookmakers are however reluctant to pull apart Mexico and Poland who are both priced 10/11 to qualify for the second round (prices from Bet365). Interestingly, they play each other in the opening gameweek, meaning the victor will be expected to qualify from the group. Mexico are very slight favourites for the game but it’s extremely close.
Qatar 2022 is set to be Mexico’s 17th tournament, their best ever finish being in the quarter-finals. Mexico are also masters of getting through the groups, in their last seven tournaments they have qualified for the second round each time. Mexico will once again fancy their chances of getting to the second round and matching their all-time best finish of the quarters. A last 16 tie against either France of Denmark might be daunting but they will fancy themselves all the same after sailing through qualification as per usual. Mexico conceded just 8 goals in 14 games of qualification, questions will be asked of their defence vs Argentina and possibly France too. That’s where Kevin Álvarez comes in.
Kevin Álvarez, 23 (Mexico/Pachuca)
Álvarez currently plays in Liga MX for Pachuca and with it not being a well-covered league in Europe, sometimes the quality of the league can go over our heads. Álvarez has previously been linked with prestigious clubs in Europe such as Ajax, but a move has never materialised for the 23 year old, this World Cup could be a chance to show clubs in Europe what he’s made of. He’s been known to play on both sides of a back four, however you are most likely to see him playing right-back on his favoured right foot. That being said, his left-foot is also efficient. He is a very attacking full-back and in 14 Liga MX games this season has supplied five assists.
To the underlying numbers then and we will be looking at an FBRef comparison which compares similar players from similar divisions. Comparisons will therefore be made against other defenders in leagues such as Brazilian Série A, the Primeira Liga and Copa Libertadores.
As mentioned previously, Álvarez is a very attack-minded full-back. It’s probably fairer to call him a wing-back but international football is a tad more reserved than club football so his output may be diluted somewhat. However, that does not take away from his impressive numbers going forward.
Starting with assists, after supplying his teammates five times this season he is in the 99th percentile for assists. When watching clips of him, it’s clear to see how this is the case. He dribbles like a winger and the attention to detail in crosses is superb, often arching balls through that corridor of uncertainty. Speaking of dribbling, he is also in the 97th percentile for dribbles completed. This equates to 1.30 completed dribbles per 90 minutes.
Assists are the end goal, but what about shot-creating actions? Álvarez is in the 97th percentile for these too, averaging 3.58 SCA per 90. If we are to look into this deeper though, Pachuca teammate and creative midfielder Erick Sánchez has only achieved 3.55 SCA. Despite operating from a more reserved position on the field Álvarez is still able to contribute to the teams attacking output.
Defensively, it is difficult to tell how good he is as Pachuca are a dominant side in Mexico and rarely teams applying pressure on their backline. During the 2022 season, he has won 63% of tackles vs dribbles, which are not poor numbers at all. How we fares against Argentina and the possibility of Kylian Mbappé in the last 16 remains to be seen.
*All statistics taken from FBRef website
Statswise FC 